Looking back over the last ten years it is clear that the effect of the arrival of these new interactive channels on the media landscape has been vast. However debates at the conference highlighted the way these channels are still growing. With no slow down in the growth of the number of users and new advertisers moving into online, the real scale of change cannot be under-estimated; what we see today is only a hint of how the market will really change.

ZenithOptimedia are forecasting direct marketing, and especially interactive marketing, to continue growing significantly, and in a way that contradicts the rest of the marketing industry. They cite the growing drive for measurability and accountability as being the critical pull factor for clients. Their growth rates of 29.8% between 2001 and 2004 may seem high, but they are highly conservative when compared to the views of many online specialists. “We’re seeing a very strong market that is growing exceptionally fast”, comments Daniele Fiandaca, chief operating officer at Profero.

While on the one hand those close to the industry understand how and why online is growing, many interactive marketers lose site of the challenges facing the traditional mass market media channels. The pressures to prove return on investment that the online industry has lived with for more than five years are now clearly spreading across to television, print, radio and outdoor. Across the whole marketing industry there is a move towards more measurable media activity.

“In parallel with this we are unquestionably in the era of more integrated marketing communications”, explains ZenithOptimedia’s Steve King. “Marketers need to embrace this challenge. Consumers are also spending more time and money on media than ever before and the media models themselves are changing”.

King is clear that broadcast media are also in the midst of a period of rapid transition: “Pay-TV has been the driver in the growth of television worldwide. We still forecast television to continue as the dominant advertising medium. However we are grappling with how to build integrated solutions that use all of the new channels along side.” There is clearly a blurring between both traditional and non-traditional media; between above the line and below the line.

ZenithOptimedia are predicting major changes in the amount of time people spend with each media channel. Newspapers and magazines and books will lose out, while mobile, radio, internet, home PCs, music and cinema will all rise. “There is a slow and steady move away from print media, and newspapers in particular”. In contrast there is a clear trend for mobile and PC internet access which will rapidly expand their reach. The falling role of press is touching all demographics, but seems to be particularly affecting the high demographic groups.

Television is clearly heading for a shake up. The arrival of digital video recorders changes television viewing for good. In the UK the use of DVRs is changing the relationship with advertising as some 73% of commercials are skipped. However, the audiences typically watch more television, and watch more recorded television. Technical advancements will allow advertisers to find ways of using the distribution channel to download brochures and more detailed product information.

ROI is the greatest challenge the advertising industry faces. Agencies and media owners both need to prove the ROI at a time when clients are making

However, today there is still clearly a disconnect between where advertising is placed today and where media audiences have moved to. The marketing community has fractured into two groups; those who are actively and enthusiastically exploring interactive marketing and those who are still doing what they were five or ten years ago.