But now the worlds of media are set to collide. Search engine advertising offers the most widespread experiment in business-to-business media auctions. It's proved not only successful for the companies, but highly efficient for the market. Auction theory may be a new skill for most marketers, but it's one that is now going to explode from the silo of search advertising to go truly mainstream in media.

Whether its auctions that use English, Dutch, Sealed-bid or Reversed models, the potential for them is vast. That model of GoTo, Overture, Google and Yahoo has been proven a billion times over, and it’s started to change cultural expectations. Analyse the trading of media and you'll see barriers and frictions all over the market. Buyers can’t see each other, and in classical economic terms, their market knowledge is ‘imperfect’; very imperfect. Price is rarely transparent and through this, the role of media sales teams has been focussed on relationships and negotiation. One side effect is that market prices evolve gradually and even major changes to the system only happen slowly.

But online platforms from the giants of Ebay and PriceRunner to the niche providers have proved that in the digital networked economy, there are new ways markets can be streamlined. Information can be collated and structured effortlessly for millions of items from thousands of suppliers. Those trading models are already removing frictions within some markets, so why not the wider online advertising industry?

In 1998 I made some over-zealous predictions that 'within ten years the price of commodity media will set through exchanges'. I’m pretty sure the directors I was working for had a good old laugh, and they were right not to run for the fire exits because in the world or forecasting where timing is everything, my timing was lousy. I was wrong by at least three years in the pace at which auctioning in search would wash across other media. Embarrassed, I retreated back to the digital ghettos of the group to figure out some more immediate challenges about the falling price of banner CPMs.

But now it has to happen, and soon. The banner advertising market will be first to feel the effects, and the pain. Initially auction based trading will be confined to just the remnant space, with algorithms helping media owners switch into and out of ad networks as the inventory prices move. Then it's probably the turn of radio. In the broadcast radio space market, factors such as the electronic trading of space (we use the JET system from MediaTel here in the UK) and some strong price pressures triggered by the erosion of local advertising, will combine neatly to create the right ingredients for that remnant space to switch to online auction driven trading. It will be brutal for the CPTs, but in a media channel under such intense pressure, there’s little that the groups will be able to do to resist, and the tools of JET and other systems will work as neat catalysts to enable the change.

Newspapers and television will follow, but with more patchy behaviour, as some of the new IPTV players experiment with the models ahead of the networks that carry the volume. Eventually, even outdoor advertising, with its massively long planning times will cross the divide.

So what about price? We'll see a market price established which is set directly by the collective behaviour of the sector, rather than the media owner. The process will prove an unpalatable shock for many media owners and agencies, and looking at the effect of CraigsList on the yields for classified ads in the US starts to give a sense of what’s coming. But eventually, channel by channel, that move will take place. And like the thin end of a wedge, once the remnant space has migrated, the premium inventory will follow. Sure, some of the premium media brands will succeed in resisting, and for some rates will rise rather than fall, but for all there will be change and pressures that are not really felt today.

Somewhere along the way 'auction theory' will play a big role and that means hiring people with auction talent right now is a smart move. Business strategists in media groups and agencies should begin planning for some price destabilisation in media space, but also accept the potential to reach new customer bases with these more efficient models. When exactly all this happens in most countries is still an open question, but it feels like it's now within the grasp of the UK market and over the next 36 months these changes ought to become apparent.

Five years ago I talked with MediaTel’s MD, Derek Jones, about the vision he had for digital trading. There have been many models and many exchanges opening up along the way, but MediaTel’s pedigree in classic media markets helps set the context for what is now possible. This month’s launch of their long awaited DELTA trading platform will be one of the catalysts in the process at national level. While the precise timing of the tipping point is unclear, it’s a lot less foggy than in that paper ten years back, and what's certain is that the media industry is in for one massive change in media buying and sales.

What should I do? Key takeouts

Advertisers: Question your media agency partners about how they see changes evolving in your sector.

Media owners: Explore how these models could affect your business and research client attitudes to see where the pressures are likely to come. Learn about the models and the emerging trading platforms and exchanges, bringing in talent with auction theory expertise to calculate the revenue impacts.

Media agencies: Invest in talent, training and staff retention. Learn about the models and the emerging trading platforms and exchanges, bringing in additional talent with auction theory expertise to calculate the business impacts. Run pilots to test and learn.

Investors: Continue to follow the trials looking for signs that the market is about to change. Review stock values for media groups based on their strategies for managing the markets and the level of innovation already displayed among their digital brands.