Facebook losing users in Germany and France faster than anticipated

27/11/2019

Facebook users in France and Germany are leaving the platform even faster than expected, according to new research.

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For the second forecast in a row, emarketer has downgraded Facebook user growth in both countries, as younger users shift to other platforms. In France this year, Facebook will experience a decline in users for the first time, whereas Germany experienced its first drop in users in 2018.

Germany: Facebook Users

Last year, Facebook usage in Germany dropped 1.2% and will fall another 0.9% by the end of 2019 to 25.9 million people. Our previous forecast predicted growth of 0.1%, however the number of users who left the platform outpaced those who joined.

Our revised forecasts for Germany show an average decrease of about 9% in Facebook users under 25 this year. The steepest drop-off will be seen among users ages 12 to 17, decreasing by 19.2%. We expect users 34 and younger to continue leaving the platform through 2023. Incremental user growth among those 35 and over will help Facebook mitigate overall losses, though.

Despite the slight decline in users, Facebook remains the leading social network in Germany and will maintain that status for the foreseeable future. As a result, advertisers in Germany will continue to buy ad space on the platform. In 2020, ad spending on Facebook will grow by 11.9%, reaching $2.49 billion (€2.11 billion).

“Over time, Facebook has lost its appeal for many young people, especially teens, but also younger adults,” eMarketer principal analyst Karin von Abrams said. “Usage of Facebook is still increasing among older internet users, but younger users can find it a bit stale and are drawn much more to Instagram and Snapchat these days. These platforms typically offer more up-to-the-minute experiences and a more vibrant atmosphere. Snapchat particularly benefitted from the Q2 2019 release of its updated Android app—as well as new visual filters, including a ‘baby face’ lens. These changes boosted engagement quite dramatically.”

Germany: Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter

While we are seeing a decline in Facebook users in Germany, other social networks like Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter are all gaining users.

• Instagram will grow by 10.4% this year to 17.7 million users. In 2020, there will be more users under 25 on Instagram than on Facebook.
• Snapchat will grow by 7.5% this year to 10.6 million users.
• Twitter will grow by 4.3% this year to 4.0 million users.

France: Facebook Users

In France, 2019 will be the first time that the total number of Facebook users will decline. The user base will shrink by 1.3% to 27.6 million. This decline is expected to continue. In fact, by 2022, less than 50% of internet users in France will use Facebook.
The story in France is similar to that in Germany: Younger people are opting for other social platforms over Facebook. In 2020, Instagram users under 25 will surpass Facebook users in that age group for the first time.

France: Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter

• This year, Instagram’s users in France will grow by 10.7% to 14.9 million.
• Snapchat will have 16.4 million users in 2019, 17.8% higher than last year. The number of Snapchat users in France will surpass those in the UK for the first time this year.
• Twitter will grow by 2.6% in 2019, to 3.9 million users.

Methodology

eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends and economic changes.


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