Over the next three years nearly half (48%) of all the world’s growth in ad expenditure will come from just ten developing markets, including China, Russia, and Indonesia, according to new research. The study, from ZenithOptimedia, predicts that the four BRIC markets alone (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are forecast to account for 33% of global growth.
Beyond the BRICs, there are six fast-growing markets ZenithOptimedia forecasts to add between US$1 billion and US$4 billion each to the global ad market, and deliver another 15% of global growth: Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina, Turkey, Mexico and South Korea.
In these ten markets ad expenditure occupies 0.32% of GDP, less than half of the world average of 0.70%, demonstrating their huge potential for further catch-up growth.
Asia Pacific, Central & Eastern Europe and Latin America are all expanding much faster than the developed world, driven by both their current economic performance and their future potential.
Over the next three years ZenithOptimedia predicts that Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) to grow by an average of 10.4% a year, Central & Eastern Europe to grow 9.6% a year and Latin America to grow by 7.3% a year.
The exception is the Middle East & North Africa, where political turmoil has disrupted media production and distribution, and made advertisers wary of attracting negative attention.
ZenithOptimedia forecast the Middle East & North Africa to grow at an average of 1.3% between 2011 and 2014.
Overall ZenithOptimedia predicts that developing markets – which we here define as everywhere outside North America, Western Europe and Japan – to increase their share of the global ad market from 32.3% in 2011 to 35.9% in 2014.
There are now two ‘developing’ markets in the world’s top ten ad markets, and there will be three in 2014. China is now the third-largest ad market in the world, and is catching up quickly with second-placed Japan. In 2005 China’s ad market was 23% of the size of Japan’s, in 2011 it is 66% and by 2014 we predict it to be 95%. Brazil, in sixth place, is 84% of the size of the UK in 2011 and will be 91% in 2014. Russia, which was in eleventh place in 2011, will be tenth in 2013 and ninth in 2014.