Media agency Carat expects the global ad industry to not recover until 2011 and has cut its forecasts for global ad spend in 2009. Carat, which is part of Aegis, now expects worldwide ad spend to fall 9.8% this year, down from its previous prediction of 5.8% in March. Advertising is expected to grow by just 1% in 2010. The predictions dampen hopes that the market will bottom out by the end of this year.
“Hopes of a fourth quarter recovery are now unlikely,” says Carat. “Modest growth is forecast for 2010, however a recovery is not forecast to be properly underway until 2011.”
According to carat’s figures, the Russian ad market will be the worst affected, with ad spend expected to plummet 21.9% year-on-year in 2009. The US and Western Europe will experience drops of 16.3% and 11% respectively. China, the most resilient country, will see its ad market grow by 6.9%.
Online advertising is the only sector expected to show growth this year, with Carat predicting an increase of 1% year-on-year, far below the 16.4% growth the sector experienced in 2008. However, Carat has upgraded its forecast for 2010, forecasting an 8.3% rise in web spending, up from the 8% it predicted in March.
The Netimperative View
Yes, global ad spend still dropping fast, and TV and print will incur much bigger losses, but online’s now growing again in many markets and the recession is forcing firms to innovate. That innovation is in their marketing mix and their marketing strategies – the countries most deeply affected by the recession will see the biggest switch to web during this time period. In the UK we’ve seen a swing of more than 20% in terms of relative growth of web Vs other channels.